* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 36 41 45 47 51 52 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 261 255 250 246 242 240 241 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 133 134 137 141 143 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 45 47 45 45 46 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -35 -37 -37 -41 -49 -53 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 2 4 3 0 27 -12 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 505 544 579 632 700 870 1114 1367 1632 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.2 161.4 162.5 163.6 164.7 167.1 169.9 172.6 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -15. -24. -32. -38. -41. -43. -45. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -21. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -20. -20. -19. -18. -15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY