* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 87 92 99 102 104 105 108 112 113 112 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 87 92 99 102 104 105 108 112 113 70 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 86 90 94 100 107 112 114 114 118 123 78 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 12 7 6 1 12 8 11 4 7 12 12 SHEAR DIR 310 291 277 284 240 249 4 359 360 30 46 84 96 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 147 148 150 149 154 151 156 161 170 172 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 152 154 154 155 153 158 153 158 163 173 173 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 10 10 11 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 61 64 62 65 64 64 57 62 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 18 19 17 17 17 18 18 20 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 29 25 31 30 61 78 77 74 64 79 73 200 MB DIV 49 74 19 28 70 50 38 8 57 50 48 52 38 LAND (KM) 869 695 528 425 411 357 293 169 161 98 349 183 -97 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 55.4 57.4 59.3 61.2 64.7 68.2 71.7 75.2 78.7 82.2 85.7 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 64 68 69 72 67 63 103 85 121 117 120 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 26. 29. 30. 30. 31. 34. 35. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 27. 29. 30. 33. 37. 38. 37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY