* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ERIN AL052007 08/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 41 47 49 51 51 49 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 8 10 11 17 18 16 26 19 29 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 253 259 279 267 278 319 334 5 347 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.6 27.7 26.4 25.3 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 163 163 163 154 143 130 115 105 98 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 141 140 139 129 117 107 96 87 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 13 9 8 15 10 17 10 14 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 58 58 59 62 62 59 52 51 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 6 7 5 7 4 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 2 14 22 15 17 7 -6 -22 -28 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 19 21 18 14 38 -18 -1 -14 -25 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -27 -119 -212 -305 -399 -560 -701 -730 -731 -775 -793 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.5 31.1 31.7 32.5 33.2 34.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 98.1 98.9 99.8 100.7 102.1 103.4 103.3 102.5 102.3 101.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 8 7 4 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 21. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 21. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY