* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/16/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 95 100 106 107 107 107 112 114 114 112
V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 95 100 106 107 107 107 112 114 99 74
V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 90 93 96 102 109 113 116 119 123 124 83
SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 9 8 3 2 14 11 10 6 9 4 8
SHEAR DIR 292 270 274 262 202 311 16 333 34 345 82 131 115
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.2 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 150 150 153 153 154 161 168 174 159 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 155 156 154 156 156 157 164 171 174 156 156
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 11 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 11
700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 63 66 65 66 61 63 63 68 66 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 20 19 19 18 15 15 18 20 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 19 26 38 46 72 86 89 68 71 62 71
200 MB DIV 74 35 42 69 95 12 56 -3 73 61 74 68 20
LAND (KM) 683 520 417 420 444 288 226 167 47 274 327 -26 94
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.1 21.8
LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.6 59.6 61.5 63.4 66.8 70.4 73.9 77.4 80.9 84.4 87.6 90.6
STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 19 18 17 18 17 17 17 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 65 68 70 72 65 78 76 82 116 121 123 9999 40
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 26. 26. 26. 26. 30. 31. 31. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 15. 20. 26. 27. 27. 27. 32. 34. 34. 32.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY