* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/17/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 91 95 99 104 109 110 117 119 124 120 117 V (KT) LAND 85 87 91 95 99 104 109 110 117 119 124 79 84 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 87 89 91 98 106 113 120 125 127 81 94 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 9 6 6 5 3 6 6 7 9 9 7 SHEAR DIR 274 266 263 199 198 310 123 338 333 64 84 66 46 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.0 29.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 151 154 153 160 165 173 172 157 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 156 155 155 158 157 164 167 173 168 152 164 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.3 -50.2 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 8 10 10 11 8 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 60 61 63 63 62 62 59 64 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 22 22 20 21 19 23 23 28 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 14 29 28 59 94 73 79 65 84 80 87 200 MB DIV 54 52 48 61 17 31 49 64 76 60 77 81 48 LAND (KM) 504 415 427 436 328 277 182 100 164 352 150 -17 249 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 59.7 61.6 63.5 65.3 68.7 72.3 76.1 79.8 83.1 85.9 88.9 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 19 18 17 17 18 19 17 15 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 72 66 72 55 104 95 134 130 134 29 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 3. 3. 7. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 24. 29. 31. 35. 32. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 25. 32. 34. 39. 35. 32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY