* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/17/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 92 96 99 104 111 115 115 121 123 120 119 V (KT) LAND 85 87 92 96 99 104 111 115 115 121 123 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 87 89 91 97 106 117 124 126 123 62 80 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 10 10 9 3 4 10 10 10 9 13 6 SHEAR DIR 237 248 238 227 222 26 304 38 337 79 66 89 51 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.3 29.4 29.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 153 153 156 163 170 173 160 157 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 158 156 156 156 155 160 166 171 173 154 154 171 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -50.5 -49.7 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 12 11 10 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 60 61 62 60 63 62 55 55 60 62 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 23 25 23 20 20 21 20 25 27 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 36 41 53 78 96 89 87 86 77 101 91 200 MB DIV 64 74 72 49 37 69 91 48 6 96 45 94 35 LAND (KM) 399 414 424 334 298 199 157 47 358 291 18 7 389 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 21.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.9 63.9 65.7 67.5 70.8 74.4 78.1 81.7 84.7 87.2 90.2 93.6 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 16 14 14 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 71 71 62 79 69 85 82 121 115 116 85 33 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 5. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 24. 28. 27. 33. 34. 31. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 7. 11. 14. 19. 26. 30. 30. 36. 38. 35. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY