* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/17/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 98 103 107 114 117 121 123 125 126 121 119
V (KT) LAND 90 93 98 103 107 114 117 121 123 125 88 82 80
V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 94 96 99 107 116 124 129 128 91 89 94
SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 8 3 3 1 6 9 8 11 7 8 7
SHEAR DIR 268 269 241 216 294 111 31 27 22 74 90 27 36
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.1 29.3 29.5 30.3
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 153 154 153 159 165 174 173 158 162 173
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 154 156 158 155 162 167 174 170 150 153 166
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.4 -49.9
TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 9 10 11 11 9 11 9 12 9
700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 61 60 62 56 57 56 59 61 58 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 25 23 21 21 20 21 23 26 29 28 31
850 MB ENV VOR 17 36 43 54 61 94 84 95 71 80 69 72 59
200 MB DIV 73 88 60 39 47 39 77 34 39 91 67 24 49
LAND (KM) 406 438 352 294 278 152 92 87 372 181 -61 136 407
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.6
LONG(DEG W) 61.7 63.5 65.2 66.9 68.6 72.1 75.6 79.1 82.6 85.6 88.1 90.6 93.1
STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 71 63 70 77 56 104 94 134 129 132 9999 45 73
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 28. 26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 17. 24. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. 31. 29.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY