* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/17/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 120 121 124 129 130 134 132 129 124 122 120
V (KT) LAND 110 117 120 121 124 129 111 117 116 112 97 96 93
V (KT) LGE mod 110 118 122 123 124 125 125 132 136 134 117 119 121
SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 11 11 1 3 1 9 7 4 8 7 3
SHEAR DIR 251 227 257 295 315 279 312 305 7 69 79 21 151
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.6 29.8 29.4 30.2 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 154 152 159 164 172 173 167 160 174 170
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 157 157 154 159 165 172 173 162 153 169 161
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 58 60 56 57 54 55 59 63 60 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 18 17 17 15 18 21 21 21 23 23
850 MB ENV VOR 26 32 36 52 64 77 63 58 38 43 50 41 38
200 MB DIV 95 65 52 64 58 41 55 31 40 45 38 32 74
LAND (KM) 431 326 281 250 167 88 -15 228 202 41 78 328 201
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.3 24.8
LONG(DEG W) 63.6 65.4 67.2 68.9 70.6 73.8 77.0 80.3 83.5 86.5 89.3 92.3 95.5
STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 15 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 65 73 72 55 78 97 120 147 130 109 35 76 56
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. -3. -9. -14. -19. -23. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -4. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17.
PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 13. 17. 18. 19. 17. 13. 10. 8. 7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 6. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 10. 11. 14. 19. 20. 24. 22. 19. 14. 12. 10.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/17/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY