* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/18/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 125 128 131 135 133 135 134 130 121 118 110
V (KT) LAND 120 123 125 128 131 135 125 126 125 88 87 84 76
V (KT) LGE mod 120 123 124 124 124 125 118 136 137 97 104 112 118
SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 10 4 5 2 7 9 9 3 2 2 12
SHEAR DIR 236 267 293 336 205 313 271 322 9 70 116 59 246
SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.3 29.3 29.5 30.2 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 152 152 160 166 174 174 158 162 174 163
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 157 157 155 153 160 167 174 174 150 153 171 155
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -51.4 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 10 12 10 14
700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 62 59 55 56 54 58 60 60 59 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 17 18 18 14 19 22 22 18 17 10
850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 50 61 84 71 64 50 45 52 42 42 62
200 MB DIV 84 48 63 61 53 76 -27 33 33 45 7 41 63
LAND (KM) 354 294 278 206 123 113 6 324 174 -23 125 411 34
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.1 19.1 20.3 21.3 22.1 23.4 25.0
LONG(DEG W) 65.1 66.9 68.6 70.3 71.9 75.0 78.0 81.6 85.3 88.3 90.6 93.7 97.2
STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 16 18 16 13 14 17 17
HEAT CONTENT 69 77 56 72 101 94 121 132 135 9999 44 78 29
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. -8. -15. -22. -28. -32. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -2. 0. 0. -3. -4. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 10. 10. 8. 4. -3. -6. -13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 14. 15. 14. 10. 1. -2. -10.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY