* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/18/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 134 137 137 136 135 135 130 124 121 120 114
V (KT) LAND 130 133 134 137 137 136 130 130 125 85 82 81 57
V (KT) LGE mod 130 134 135 134 133 134 133 136 133 93 102 111 81
SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 8 0 7 8 12 10 8 7 6 4 12
SHEAR DIR 264 293 351 299 327 360 341 50 59 91 49 106 333
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.4 29.5 29.3 30.1 29.9 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 152 153 154 163 168 174 162 159 173 170 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 155 155 156 165 170 174 159 152 165 161 152
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.1 -50.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 11 11 12 12 13
700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 61 59 58 57 56 57 60 55 59 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 18 18 18 15 15 18 19 20 21 23 18
850 MB ENV VOR 44 56 68 87 91 78 60 44 43 61 47 55 81
200 MB DIV 55 62 69 47 41 59 24 36 6 48 -21 71 21
LAND (KM) 322 304 262 150 157 22 182 273 31 55 332 213 -138
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.6 23.1 24.3 25.3
LONG(DEG W) 66.6 68.2 69.8 71.5 73.2 76.5 80.0 83.6 87.0 90.0 92.6 95.6 98.9
STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 16 15
HEAT CONTENT 83 63 65 97 99 110 144 132 93 33 74 55 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -12. -21. -30. -36. -41. -48.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14.
PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -5. -11. -13. -14. -20.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 0. -6. -9. -10. -16.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED