* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/18/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 132 134 135 140 140 141 138 129 129 118 107 V (KT) LAND 130 130 132 134 135 131 132 132 101 92 92 80 52 V (KT) LGE mod 130 130 128 128 129 113 133 136 108 104 109 112 74 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 3 3 6 5 7 7 11 5 9 15 15 SHEAR DIR 302 7 90 332 354 311 359 44 40 55 346 330 8 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.5 29.3 29.5 30.2 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 158 167 174 174 159 162 173 167 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 154 157 161 169 174 174 153 155 166 156 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -48.7 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 9 14 12 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 62 58 58 57 57 59 59 57 59 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 18 15 18 17 20 24 20 27 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 83 88 72 78 56 50 47 56 58 78 87 200 MB DIV 63 88 87 65 43 50 37 15 47 0 44 51 -12 LAND (KM) 298 276 185 172 112 6 334 200 -53 132 392 142 -140 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.0 24.0 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 69.4 70.9 72.6 74.3 78.0 81.4 84.7 87.8 90.8 93.7 96.4 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 68 57 87 103 92 121 129 107 9999 47 90 48 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -2. -11. -21. -30. -35. -41. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 3. 0. 5. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 9. 7. 2. -6. -6. -17. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 10. 11. 8. -1. -1. -12. -23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY