* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/18/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 136 141 143 152 155 150 142 136 132 121 111 V (KT) LAND 130 132 136 141 143 135 138 133 104 98 94 71 41 V (KT) LGE mod 130 129 128 130 132 137 142 142 114 116 117 100 50 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 2 4 4 4 4 8 8 11 6 9 6 SHEAR DIR 6 106 249 338 48 300 53 62 59 53 35 359 192 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.5 29.7 29.3 30.0 30.1 29.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 159 163 170 174 166 158 171 173 163 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 155 162 165 172 174 164 151 161 162 155 162 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 14 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 59 60 56 60 57 62 60 66 68 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 17 15 19 23 22 24 25 25 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR 58 79 87 76 76 60 48 47 77 74 81 94 72 200 MB DIV 80 77 61 46 54 44 50 40 32 45 95 51 12 LAND (KM) 255 146 146 95 23 142 230 20 77 313 275 -36 -432 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 71.0 72.5 74.3 76.0 79.5 83.1 86.7 90.0 92.8 95.1 98.1 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 17 14 13 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 60 85 105 95 109 147 148 101 36 69 81 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -11. -21. -30. -35. -41. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 11. 18. 19. 13. 7. 2. -2. -13. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 11. 13. 22. 25. 20. 12. 6. 2. -9. -19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/18/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY