* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/19/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 137 140 142 143 143 136 128 120 112 102 100 V (KT) LAND 130 133 137 140 142 143 143 94 77 69 61 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 130 129 130 131 131 133 134 92 82 90 95 51 34 SHEAR (KTS) 8 2 6 10 12 11 11 18 13 18 16 11 7 SHEAR DIR 115 316 47 45 54 8 29 34 23 28 342 42 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 30.0 30.4 29.2 29.4 30.0 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 161 163 173 174 157 160 171 167 169 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 159 162 164 174 174 153 154 164 158 158 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.7 -50.7 -50.7 -49.7 -50.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 12 11 10 11 10 11 9 14 11 14 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 60 64 63 62 66 63 68 69 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 19 21 22 23 22 16 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 90 86 83 59 55 55 74 55 99 82 72 200 MB DIV 77 66 57 71 20 3 58 38 30 40 45 22 76 LAND (KM) 182 183 137 57 10 298 234 -82 136 288 30 -255 -369 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.7 74.4 76.1 77.7 81.1 85.0 88.5 91.5 94.5 97.5 100.3 102.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 18 18 16 15 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 89 103 88 100 120 127 113 9999 46 112 59 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -11. -22. -30. -35. -41. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -5. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. -2. -7. -14. -22. -32. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 6. -2. -10. -18. -28. -30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY