* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/19/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 132 136 141 145 147 141 134 126 116 107 101 V (KT) LAND 125 127 132 136 141 145 147 71 71 63 42 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 125 124 125 127 129 134 134 66 83 94 64 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 8 5 8 10 8 5 12 16 11 17 8 SHEAR DIR 79 24 49 51 342 44 72 87 27 40 34 85 67 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.1 29.5 29.1 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 161 163 165 174 163 156 168 169 166 165 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 158 164 165 168 174 162 153 162 161 151 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -50.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 60 62 62 65 66 67 67 74 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 20 22 23 25 25 24 21 13 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 80 83 86 85 76 72 68 85 81 86 94 76 66 200 MB DIV 67 58 62 32 41 82 62 51 51 90 63 53 56 LAND (KM) 184 143 69 28 131 349 52 -11 329 114 -143 -285 -346 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.5 23.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 74.3 76.0 77.8 79.5 83.2 86.9 90.3 93.6 96.5 99.2 100.6 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 15 14 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 104 87 98 119 135 131 97 36 55 70 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 2. -9. -18. -26. -31. -37. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 16. 10. 5. -3. -13. -22. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 16. 9. 1. -9. -18. -24. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED