* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/19/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 132 137 140 146 144 139 131 123 110 107 102
V (KT) LAND 125 128 132 137 140 146 105 76 69 60 36 30 28
V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 127 129 131 135 102 76 89 100 49 34 29
SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 7 8 9 8 12 5 12 11 21 13 7
SHEAR DIR 331 341 44 338 11 68 55 51 58 359 75 159 141
SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.3 29.2 29.3 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 163 165 170 174 158 159 169 165 168 169 170
ADJ. POT. INT. 157 161 165 167 173 174 156 155 163 155 154 153 154
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -50.7 -51.4 -50.3 -50.5 -49.2 -50.2 -49.9 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 10 11 9 11 9 13 10 16 9
700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 62 63 64 65 68 64 75 76 77 72
GFS VTEX (KT) 22 19 21 21 21 23 25 24 22 17 9 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 73 61 51 68 60 87 80 115 90 90 73
200 MB DIV 42 46 39 70 89 83 22 51 58 87 18 81 32
LAND (KM) 143 75 32 125 306 280 -106 145 221 3 -229 -381 -235
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.4 23.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.3 76.0 77.7 79.5 81.2 84.8 88.4 91.8 95.0 97.8 100.1 102.1 103.8
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 10 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 87 97 118 134 122 113 9999 43 73 59 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 2. -9. -18. -26. -31. -37. -43.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 13. 8. 2. -6. -19. -22. -27.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 21. 19. 14. 6. -2. -15. -18. -23.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY