* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 134 139 144 148 145 141 131 119 117 114 109 V (KT) LAND 125 129 134 139 144 148 78 82 72 49 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 127 129 131 134 72 90 103 78 42 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 6 8 8 11 10 7 9 15 10 12 14 SHEAR DIR 40 68 2 6 47 41 89 28 33 47 153 214 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.1 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 165 168 172 169 156 166 167 167 170 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 165 166 169 173 170 154 160 158 155 157 153 147 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 12 14 12 14 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 63 63 64 68 70 74 73 73 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 21 20 20 21 22 22 22 17 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 70 56 49 51 56 61 77 82 102 87 83 81 200 MB DIV 56 41 47 67 61 38 28 61 91 23 48 69 73 LAND (KM) 80 33 131 306 340 121 -23 297 85 -92 -347 -325 -327 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.4 24.2 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.8 79.5 81.2 82.9 86.3 90.2 93.6 96.4 98.8 101.2 103.1 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 18 17 15 13 12 11 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 95 119 135 123 124 108 9999 47 76 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 2. -8. -17. -26. -31. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -2. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 13. 10. 2. -9. -12. -15. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 20. 16. 6. -6. -8. -11. -16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY