* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/20/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 132 136 139 141 138 131 119 114 112 108 104 V (KT) LAND 125 128 132 136 139 108 78 70 51 35 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 127 129 131 105 76 89 79 44 32 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 4 7 9 14 16 9 12 13 12 11 7 15 SHEAR DIR 77 19 22 47 72 64 48 19 28 113 222 265 293 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 29.3 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 168 172 174 159 159 168 165 168 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 167 170 174 174 158 156 162 155 155 153 151 147 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.8 -50.2 -50.3 -49.3 -50.5 -49.9 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 11 11 9 10 9 13 10 16 9 15 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 63 64 64 68 66 75 71 75 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 23 24 26 26 21 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 64 61 61 73 73 88 78 99 74 78 69 45 200 MB DIV 39 46 54 54 81 45 66 82 76 22 50 34 66 LAND (KM) 34 139 316 311 276 -88 149 201 -23 -236 -404 -300 -349 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.4 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.5 24.3 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 79.6 81.3 83.1 84.9 88.3 91.9 95.1 98.0 100.2 101.9 103.5 103.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 12 10 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 120 133 119 124 114 9999 42 67 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 2. -8. -18. -26. -32. -37. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -6. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 12. 9. 2. -9. -14. -17. -21. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 13. 6. -6. -11. -13. -17. -21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY