* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/20/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 134 137 141 142 139 135 127 114 104 100 94 88 V (KT) LAND 130 134 137 141 142 71 75 57 37 30 28 27 25 V (KT) LGE mod 130 132 134 136 136 69 85 78 43 32 28 27 31 SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 10 10 13 16 15 15 19 20 18 25 22 SHEAR DIR 320 353 40 68 48 66 40 42 38 97 52 43 69 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 168 172 165 158 163 165 170 171 169 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 169 170 174 165 156 161 163 165 160 153 158 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 12 12 10 11 10 12 12 13 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 64 64 63 67 66 73 74 74 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 10 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 59 65 61 77 71 66 72 61 70 57 37 200 MB DIV 68 56 57 76 64 41 45 39 1 77 67 42 6 LAND (KM) 172 349 248 261 80 -28 162 -51 -332 -143 -54 -29 75 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 81.6 83.4 85.1 86.8 90.4 93.8 97.4 100.9 103.9 105.1 105.7 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 10 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 132 111 127 110 95 9999 29 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 10. 7. 0. -11. -20. -29. -35. -40. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -9. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 7. 3. -4. -19. -29. -33. -39. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 12. 9. 5. -2. -16. -26. -30. -36. -42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY