* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 136 138 137 136 130 116 105 101 97 92 87 V (KT) LAND 130 133 136 138 102 75 69 44 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 130 131 132 132 101 75 88 66 38 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 8 10 14 7 14 14 20 11 16 19 19 SHEAR DIR 323 39 56 42 55 48 1 10 76 110 23 30 49 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 165 159 156 161 166 166 173 171 169 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 161 166 159 155 160 164 160 165 161 155 158 161 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -50.6 -50.6 -49.8 -50.7 -50.4 -51.4 -50.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 10 9 11 8 13 10 12 8 12 7 700-500 MB RH 59 63 64 66 64 66 67 74 75 75 70 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 23 22 22 22 21 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 59 54 52 62 57 72 47 49 49 10 13 200 MB DIV 68 70 57 35 14 60 42 45 21 59 38 52 18 LAND (KM) 342 257 255 80 -83 130 142 -112 -366 -133 -82 -148 -104 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 83.3 85.1 86.8 88.5 92.1 95.5 98.8 101.8 104.4 105.2 105.3 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 13 8 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 111 126 110 95 9999 39 63 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 6. 4. -3. -14. -23. -31. -36. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -1. 0. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. -2. -16. -27. -30. -34. -39. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. 0. -14. -25. -29. -33. -38. -43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY