* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 08/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 29 33 41 50 57 61 66 70 73 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 29 33 41 50 57 61 66 70 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 38 44 51 59 68 76 SHEAR (KTS) 10 4 7 11 10 7 10 9 10 2 1 8 7 SHEAR DIR 267 280 300 319 350 299 302 328 15 238 243 220 240 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 148 153 156 156 153 146 141 141 142 144 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 144 147 148 146 138 127 118 117 119 121 122 122 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 59 59 56 56 54 54 57 55 57 56 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -12 -27 -31 -40 -56 -38 -45 -22 -30 -25 -23 200 MB DIV 3 0 0 20 31 -7 9 -4 -6 -23 2 -15 -9 LAND (KM) 1229 1094 987 919 885 933 957 989 977 935 894 889 834 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.8 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.5 58.3 60.0 61.7 64.6 66.7 67.8 68.5 69.2 70.0 70.8 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 17 16 13 8 4 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 44 39 32 30 27 21 26 25 27 25 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 36. 42. 48. 52. 56. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 37. 41. 46. 50. 53. 55. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 08/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 08/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY