* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL922007 08/20/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 56 62 67 72 75 76
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 56 62 67 72 75 76
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 37 44 51 61 70 78
SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 13 14 13 8 12 10 10 2 7 8 10
SHEAR DIR 330 5 358 4 24 326 14 9 82 203 169 231 206
SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 156 155 155 154 149 146 146 148 150 151 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 146 148 146 144 138 128 123 123 126 128 129 133
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 56 54 50 50 51 57 49 56 50 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 -3 -10 -17 -45 -57 -64 -28 -38 -11 -28 -21
200 MB DIV 0 6 16 29 10 -2 15 -6 1 -11 0 -9 12
LAND (KM) 1084 963 872 826 810 855 871 858 824 771 733 663 612
LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.3 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.2
LONG(DEG W) 56.3 58.1 59.8 61.4 62.9 65.6 67.4 68.4 69.3 70.2 71.3 72.4 73.6
STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 16 14 11 7 4 4 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 58 58 41 36 52 30 28 32 32 31 30 29 40
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 36. 43. 49. 54. 57. 59.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 42. 47. 52. 55. 56.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 08/20/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 08/20/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY