* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/21/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 133 131 132 124 113 103 99 93 86 79 73
V (KT) LAND 135 135 98 68 76 68 45 33 29 27 19 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 135 134 102 68 78 90 63 38 30 35 39 41 42
SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 17 15 9 16 17 22 12 19 23 22 29
SHEAR DIR 44 39 67 94 54 50 35 71 96 73 65 60 84
SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.3 29.9 29.8 30.1 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 158 157 161 164 166 171 172 166 161 167 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 167 160 157 155 159 162 160 163 167 149 138 145 143
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -50.4 -51.3 -50.5 -51.3 -50.6 -51.7 -50.7 -52.0 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 11 9 13 9 13 7 10 7 11
700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 62 67 67 74 73 74 69 74 70 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 21 23 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 49 59 68 69 82 48 49 42 44 28 35
200 MB DIV 53 30 0 21 56 70 72 46 55 36 45 6 1
LAND (KM) 255 71 -76 -34 115 126 -129 -353 -88 122 145 83 184
LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.6 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 85.1 86.9 88.7 90.4 92.0 95.5 98.8 101.8 104.4 106.7 106.9 106.4 107.4
STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 6 1 2 5
HEAT CONTENT 97 85 9999 9999 38 60 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 6. 3. -5. -16. -26. -35. -42. -48. -55.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -12. -13. -17. -18. -15. -12. -9. -9. -9. -8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -3. -10. -21. -30. -34. -40. -48. -54. -61.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -3. -11. -22. -32. -36. -42. -49. -56. -62.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED