* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL922007 08/21/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 59 66 72 76 79 78
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 59 66 72 76 79 78
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 53 63 72 78 82
SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 9 5 4 4 5 2 7 7 14 12 21
SHEAR DIR 113 58 78 107 148 344 90 69 227 238 237 258 252
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 155 153 145 143 144 145 147 149 151 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 149 147 145 139 126 120 119 120 123 124 127 129
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12
700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 52 49 48 49 52 50 50 49 51 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -6 -19 -39 -39 -22 -23 -33 -32 -37 -41 -38
200 MB DIV -9 28 30 2 -11 9 -4 -1 -16 2 -31 -2 -6
LAND (KM) 821 781 786 839 842 911 895 840 821 765 713 623 534
LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.2
LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.2 63.9 65.5 67.0 69.4 70.6 71.4 71.9 72.4 72.9 73.8 74.7
STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 17 16 14 9 5 3 3 3 3 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 42 42 34 27 28 25 24 23 25 31 40 49
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 39. 46. 53. 57. 60. 62.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 39. 46. 52. 56. 59. 58.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 08/21/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 08/21/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED