* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/21/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 135 133 131 121 110 96 86 74 65 58 57 V (KT) LAND 140 102 70 71 68 48 34 29 27 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 140 107 71 74 81 67 39 30 33 33 31 28 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 17 9 13 21 21 33 28 39 31 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 33 56 77 81 33 59 54 76 55 50 73 92 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.2 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 162 163 164 171 172 168 166 154 145 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 159 161 162 163 169 164 154 153 144 133 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 10 11 11 12 10 9 7 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 61 66 70 71 74 74 71 75 70 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 17 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 65 73 73 73 62 26 38 36 29 13 N/A 200 MB DIV 51 31 35 44 42 72 36 38 54 49 -3 31 N/A LAND (KM) 71 -68 -39 61 119 -105 -209 -53 45 116 295 445 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 88.7 90.5 92.2 93.8 97.5 100.8 103.8 105.2 106.1 108.1 109.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 17 16 15 10 6 7 9 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 85 9999 9999 40 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -6. -18. -29. -40. -46. -53. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -13. -16. -22. -22. -23. -23. -24. -27. -25. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -17. -28. -42. -52. -63. -73. -79. -81. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -7. -9. -19. -30. -44. -54. -66. -75. -82. -83. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED