* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * DEAN AL042007 08/21/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 106 109 109 104 94 85 87 85 80 72 67 V (KT) LAND 110 76 86 88 88 54 35 29 31 29 24 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 74 79 81 83 54 35 29 28 34 36 37 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 8 12 17 20 26 20 16 22 31 33 N/A SHEAR DIR 54 72 45 24 38 33 78 82 69 42 64 85 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.6 29.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 163 162 164 166 171 171 168 169 160 152 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 161 157 159 161 165 161 151 153 143 134 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.1 -49.8 -50.8 -50.4 -51.8 -50.6 -52.1 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 11 9 13 10 13 8 11 6 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 57 63 68 68 75 76 76 75 76 72 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 22 20 13 8 5 6 6 7 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 58 73 79 81 84 47 44 44 51 33 38 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 26 45 54 84 86 32 66 58 28 39 27 N/A LAND (KM) -84 -12 78 142 92 -170 -289 -89 0 53 188 216 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.7 90.7 92.6 94.1 95.5 98.6 101.8 104.4 105.5 105.9 107.4 108.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 16 14 14 15 14 9 3 5 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 15 39 34 54 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. -2. -10. -16. -21. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -15. -12. -11. -12. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -4. -1. 0. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -14. -15. -13. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -4. -1. -1. -6. -16. -25. -23. -25. -30. -38. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -4. -1. -1. -6. -16. -25. -23. -25. -30. -38. -43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY