* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* DEAN AL042007 08/21/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 62 57 55 55 51 50 50 53 58 60 64 64
V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 64 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 75 63 53 49 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 15 17 15 19 24 16 29 30 29 24 N/A
SHEAR DIR 76 55 41 58 48 46 72 50 38 49 74 102 N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 164 164 167 172 170 168 169 169 168 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 159 162 161 160 160 163 159 152 156 156 154 N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 11 11 12 10 10 10 11 10 N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 65 67 70 71 72 74 76 73 67 65 60 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 22 20 18 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 72 89 94 87 81 69 48 39 25 29 15 21 N/A
200 MB DIV 47 68 60 62 84 32 42 57 52 5 17 0 N/A
LAND (KM) -20 94 154 98 -29 -281 -259 -24 -25 -67 -36 -59 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.3 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 90.5 92.2 93.9 95.5 97.1 100.2 102.7 105.2 105.4 105.2 106.3 106.7 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 6 3 5 5 4 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9999 38 35 57 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12.
PERSISTENCE -16. -23. -27. -29. -31. -31. -31. -27. -18. -12. -5. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -13. -18. -20. -20. -24. -25. -25. -22. -17. -15. -11. -11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -13. -18. -20. -20. -24. -25. -25. -22. -17. -15. -11. -11.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -70.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/21/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY