* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/22/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 74 69 66 65 63 59 55 53 52
V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 51 34 29 31 28 24 20 19 17
V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 73 76 54 35 29 31 33 33 33 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 17 15 13 26 19 28 29 33 34 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 49 45 54 60 25 63 85 52 53 73 100 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.0 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 164 165 166 171 171 168 169 169 167 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 159 161 162 162 165 164 153 155 150 144 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.8 -50.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 12 13 10 13 8 12 7 11 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 70 68 69 71 73 76 68 69 62 60 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 20 17 14 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 86 73 70 68 50 37 9 16 -1 23 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 62 63 81 88 95 0 51 32 11 1 -4 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 122 186 147 6 -136 -344 -56 7 15 97 112 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 92.2 93.7 95.2 97.0 98.7 101.9 104.8 105.7 105.9 107.4 108.1 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 14 9 3 5 6 3 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 39 36 58 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -13. -17. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. -1. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY