* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/22/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 74 73 70 69 63 59 56 57 56 54 V (KT) LAND 70 72 64 50 40 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 72 50 39 31 28 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 13 19 23 24 28 38 29 24 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 37 35 22 40 57 36 48 55 64 73 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 166 169 172 170 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 161 160 162 163 165 161 155 157 160 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -49.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 12 14 11 12 9 10 10 11 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 70 71 75 75 73 66 62 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 18 12 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 66 69 71 38 31 -3 11 19 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 63 62 66 41 54 66 15 7 31 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 115 -7 -143 -302 -220 7 -22 -126 -104 -149 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 22.2 22.6 23.2 24.2 24.9 25.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.7 97.3 99.0 100.7 103.3 105.9 106.1 105.7 106.7 106.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 14 12 7 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 62 71 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -7. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 2. -2. -2. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -7. -11. -14. -13. -14. -16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY