* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/22/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 83 82 80 81 78 70 63 58 56 53 51
V (KT) LAND 80 83 60 45 37 30 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 64 47 38 30 34 36 36 34 33 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 18 24 27 18 30 40 32 30 18 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 42 30 20 42 58 70 43 48 72 96 63 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.4 29.7 29.7 30.2 29.9 30.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 166 170 172 173 162 160 167 164 167 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 160 166 167 171 145 138 146 141 144 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.3 -50.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 13 14 12 10 13 7 10 9 12 9 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 67 70 73 72 73 72 71 63 57 55 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 21 16 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 75 59 63 63 46 33 26 17 6 8 6 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 59 57 64 16 7 65 45 8 -6 -15 -24 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 126 19 -93 -235 -365 -75 172 165 90 127 90 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.5 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.3 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.9 98.3 100.0 101.7 104.8 107.5 107.5 107.0 107.8 107.7 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 13 6 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 60 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 8. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. -2. -10. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. -2. -10. -17. -22. -24. -27. -29.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY