* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * DEAN AL042007 08/22/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 68 68 69 67 62 59 57 56 55 53 V (KT) LAND 70 52 41 35 31 32 30 25 22 20 19 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 70 52 40 34 31 32 34 35 35 34 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 24 24 24 20 26 31 32 24 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 44 49 70 73 63 52 63 76 106 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 169 171 172 170 163 164 157 154 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 161 164 163 164 157 142 145 139 133 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -49.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 12 10 12 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 72 73 74 71 68 63 60 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 66 61 47 37 31 14 16 14 16 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 70 52 25 4 45 26 15 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -36 -171 -304 -308 -210 24 66 85 202 229 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.9 100.5 101.9 103.2 105.8 106.3 106.4 107.5 107.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 7 1 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/22/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY