* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 08/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 39 47 57 63 69 71 71 68 V (KT) LAND 20 23 22 24 25 26 27 27 34 38 40 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 23 25 26 27 27 33 38 43 46 48 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 14 14 15 14 4 4 8 5 4 3 5 SHEAR DIR 316 302 304 302 299 305 312 294 295 331 356 234 262 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.0 26.9 23.7 23.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 165 167 171 171 172 170 124 97 94 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 148 149 151 155 160 168 158 115 90 87 86 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 15 13 11 13 13 13 10 9 6 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 71 74 73 70 72 70 70 62 60 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 3 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 26 24 21 28 20 23 26 29 44 37 7 200 MB DIV 33 46 17 0 7 27 -9 15 -13 11 -3 13 -16 LAND (KM) 70 39 -42 -129 -219 -396 -237 -74 112 35 209 507 752 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.5 98.3 99.2 100.0 101.7 103.6 105.7 108.2 111.0 113.9 117.1 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 82 69 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 35. 42. 49. 51. 51. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 37. 44. 49. 52. 51. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 08/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 08/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY