* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 08/27/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 48 56 63 67 69 68 64
V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 24 25 26 27 27 31 35 36 34 31
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 27 31 37 39 42 42
SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 14 13 16 8 4 2 9 6 4 9 12
SHEAR DIR 296 307 313 294 281 303 257 326 333 347 100 202 188
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 28.2 23.9 22.3 22.1
POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 165 167 171 171 171 172 140 98 89 88
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 147 148 150 153 159 166 169 128 90 82 81
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 10 13 16 11 16 9 12 6 6 1 0
700-500 MB RH 74 76 73 70 72 73 68 66 63 65 58 59 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 20 16 20 15 12 2 24 3 1 -13 -15
200 MB DIV 42 11 3 18 21 0 6 7 8 -35 -1 -12 -7
LAND (KM) 97 17 -71 -153 -235 -408 -286 -141 30 24 101 324 489
LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.8
LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.7 98.5 99.3 100.1 101.8 103.5 105.5 107.9 110.5 113.3 116.0 118.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 82 59 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 32. 35. 37. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 25. 34. 42. 47. 50. 48. 45.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 28. 36. 43. 47. 49. 48. 44.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 08/27/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 08/27/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY