* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 08/28/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 37 43 44 42 34 31 28 28 28
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 37 43 44 42 34 31 28 28 28
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 20 18 17 15
SHEAR (KTS) 26 23 27 26 19 19 16 19 17 12 9 14 12
SHEAR DIR 81 72 70 78 81 70 61 75 93 112 145 171 176
SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.3 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.9 23.6
POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 150 147 138 128 116 111 109 106 102 99
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 1 2
700-500 MB RH 83 79 77 75 78 73 68 62 59 54 51 49 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 54 62 61 63 50 47 29 39 34 32 15 20 32
200 MB DIV 60 50 40 12 -2 2 -20 -6 -22 -29 -17 -14 -22
LAND (KM) 206 183 195 242 299 306 410 536 741 958 1152 1352 1552
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.2 106.8 107.6 108.4 110.6 113.2 115.8 118.4 121.1 123.6 126.0 128.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 11. 10. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 19. 17. 9. 6. 3. 3. 3.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 08/28/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 08/28/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED