* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * TEST AL802007 08/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 41 45 49 52 53 56 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 41 45 49 52 53 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 27 28 28 28 30 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 13 14 19 29 27 23 21 16 18 15 13 SHEAR DIR 154 133 129 136 142 144 140 114 102 84 76 81 84 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 122 124 123 126 128 128 126 124 124 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 119 118 119 118 122 123 122 120 118 119 122 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 60 60 56 56 60 59 62 60 61 57 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 83 72 65 74 106 91 91 61 70 55 48 16 200 MB DIV 46 53 31 25 51 57 46 79 30 25 20 24 24 LAND (KM) 1606 1697 1789 1748 1707 1604 1557 1525 1465 1403 1337 1276 1206 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.0 33.8 34.7 35.5 36.9 38.2 39.2 40.2 41.3 42.7 44.3 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 6 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 6 10 12 11 12 11 11 15 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 36. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 36. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL802007 TEST 08/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802007 TEST 08/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED