* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 56 62 68 73 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 56 62 68 73 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 50 58 68 78 88 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 6 11 14 13 14 8 9 5 10 2 2 SHEAR DIR 132 113 70 29 29 36 15 354 30 63 104 140 337 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 141 142 143 145 150 150 154 149 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 142 145 146 147 149 156 157 161 155 153 155 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 60 60 62 56 59 54 60 56 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 8 -9 -16 3 -1 -12 -19 -30 -10 17 35 200 MB DIV 24 32 19 5 0 -5 -15 -23 -13 2 -25 -21 -27 LAND (KM) 1285 1166 1056 961 876 709 589 531 328 56 91 122 34 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.9 44.2 45.6 47.0 49.6 52.2 55.0 58.0 61.1 64.2 67.4 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 28 32 32 42 43 50 65 68 38 38 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 401 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 24. 31. 38. 45. 50. 55. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 31. 37. 43. 48. 53. 57. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY