* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 08/28/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 45 44 41 33 28 23 22 21
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 45 44 41 33 28 23 22 21
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 19 15 13 14 17 16 14 11 9 12 10
SHEAR DIR 70 73 76 87 81 69 72 77 89 109 117 183 205
SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 26.7 25.3 24.2 23.2 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 149 145 132 117 106 95 87 86 85 87
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 7 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 82 80 82 80 77 74 65 63 62 57 53 53 48
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 6 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 65 62 59 42 36 18 19 26 6 25 3
200 MB DIV 61 48 13 10 5 -7 -11 1 -15 -13 -13 -10 -16
LAND (KM) 191 169 176 229 313 220 346 518 740 926 1133 1337 1572
LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.2 21.2 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.2 106.8 107.8 108.7 111.1 113.8 116.6 119.5 122.2 124.7 127.0 129.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 11. 8. 3. -1. -5. -7. -8.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 19. 16. 8. 3. -2. -3. -4.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 08/28/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 08/28/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY