* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 08/29/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 43 49 54 56 58 60 61 64
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 43 49 54 56 58 60 61 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 41 46 51 56 61 63
SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 10 12 10 9 5 12 6 13 13 20 19
SHEAR DIR 98 72 32 39 47 359 360 319 280 312 276 301 290
SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 136 136 136 135 137 142 146 151 152 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 134 136 135 135 134 137 141 144 150 150 147
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11
700-500 MB RH 66 60 60 59 57 54 52 52 44 45 39 41 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 0 -12 -3 1 -16 -24 -17 -10 -6 9 23
200 MB DIV 20 11 0 -6 1 -9 -15 -20 -8 -6 -16 -22 -23
LAND (KM) 1267 1185 1113 1046 982 868 784 766 596 404 304 333 371
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9
LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.2 44.3 45.5 46.6 48.8 51.2 53.6 56.0 58.3 60.5 62.8 65.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 17 19 22 23 28 34 35 40 55 63 72 60 61
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 37. 39. 41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. 39.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY