* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942007 08/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 38 41 41 36 28 22 17 17 16 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 38 41 41 36 28 22 17 17 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 14 10 15 11 14 14 13 10 13 8 11 SHEAR DIR 77 78 85 66 65 76 69 78 108 124 142 182 192 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.9 25.8 24.4 23.4 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 140 134 122 108 98 87 85 84 86 90 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 84 80 78 77 74 67 68 59 56 51 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 61 60 53 26 29 37 27 15 32 17 1 200 MB DIV 48 29 2 5 0 -18 2 -10 -17 -24 0 -13 -10 LAND (KM) 268 298 345 311 279 403 521 742 934 1148 1381 1606 1776 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.2 108.9 110.0 111.1 113.6 116.4 119.3 122.3 125.0 127.7 130.3 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. -1. -6. -11. -12. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 11. 3. -3. -8. -8. -9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY