* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 08/29/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 37 35 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 37 35 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 14 17 14 10 15 15 14 7 10 7 14
SHEAR DIR 74 77 70 69 82 58 69 67 106 126 151 169 187
SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.3 24.0 22.9 21.9 21.6 21.7 22.2 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 140 135 129 117 104 92 82 78 79 84 89
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 84 80 79 77 77 73 69 63 57 54 50 44 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 79 69 67 58 42 33 28 23 18 1 16 -12 -28
200 MB DIV 40 11 20 28 -1 -32 5 -6 -30 -5 -16 -5 -13
LAND (KM) 292 345 323 277 281 400 562 772 955 1169 1378 1537 1657
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.9 109.7 110.8 111.8 114.3 117.1 120.1 122.9 125.6 128.0 130.5 132.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 13 13 12 12 11 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 1. -5. -11. -14. -15. -16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 4. -3. -9. -12. -13. -14.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY