* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 59 66 72 77 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 59 66 72 77 83 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 48 57 68 81 92 100 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 5 7 12 5 8 4 9 3 9 5 12 SHEAR DIR 331 14 14 358 8 331 320 279 340 347 324 233 284 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 139 139 143 147 154 152 149 148 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 143 140 141 146 151 158 156 152 151 149 153 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 11 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 59 58 57 60 56 57 50 56 52 50 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 8 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 5 4 9 -1 -19 -11 6 20 39 47 30 200 MB DIV -2 -5 -5 -5 -7 -13 -11 -15 -8 -8 -18 -14 11 LAND (KM) 901 830 773 735 701 650 401 268 344 378 297 278 224 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 48.2 49.5 50.8 52.0 54.8 57.8 60.7 63.8 67.0 70.4 73.9 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 12 13 14 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 37 39 38 46 60 75 61 52 45 91 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 26. 35. 41. 48. 54. 60. 64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 34. 41. 47. 52. 58. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY