* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEN EP102007 08/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 44 44 41 33 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 44 44 41 33 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 17 14 9 14 13 15 11 13 6 8 8 SHEAR DIR 81 79 69 82 79 68 67 89 120 141 146 169 190 SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.8 24.3 22.9 21.5 21.1 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 135 129 123 107 93 78 73 75 82 88 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 77 68 69 58 57 50 47 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 58 40 27 28 33 18 10 10 -21 -43 -60 200 MB DIV 12 18 27 -3 -27 -11 -3 -21 -21 6 -17 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 356 333 285 313 381 499 724 888 1099 1309 1399 1490 1601 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.2 22.7 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.0 111.0 112.2 113.4 116.3 119.5 122.4 125.1 127.6 129.7 131.8 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. -2. -11. -17. -20. -22. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 12. 14. 14. 11. 3. -8. -15. -19. -19. -21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 TEN 08/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 TEN 08/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY