* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942007 08/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 37 39 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 37 39 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 19 14 9 14 16 15 11 12 6 8 11 SHEAR DIR 81 79 85 82 80 68 67 89 116 140 146 170 191 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.0 24.6 23.2 21.6 21.1 21.1 21.9 22.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 137 131 125 110 96 79 73 73 81 87 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 77 77 68 68 59 57 50 47 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 59 42 27 27 32 17 7 7 -19 -44 -59 200 MB DIV 14 23 30 0 -26 -10 -6 -20 -22 3 -19 -8 -10 LAND (KM) 359 361 300 315 378 489 703 869 1076 1270 1390 1469 1578 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.0 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.8 110.8 112.0 113.2 116.0 119.1 122.1 124.8 127.2 129.4 131.5 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 4. -2. -10. -16. -19. -20. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 12. 14. 11. 4. -6. -13. -16. -17. -18. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 08/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY