* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 08/29/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 62 66 72 79 84 88
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 62 66 72 79 84 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 42 50 59 70 81 94 103
SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 6 12 10 7 8 9 11 5 3 8 5
SHEAR DIR 35 28 347 7 30 357 22 19 35 333 304 255 258
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 146 149 154 152 149 148 147 150 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 147 147 151 154 159 159 154 153 150 153 152
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 11 10 12 11 12
700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 61 57 55 60 57 57 52 54 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 8 7 6 5 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 9 16 16 4 -4 16 28 43 48 31 18
200 MB DIV -3 3 5 -4 3 3 -21 -15 -6 -14 14 13 5
LAND (KM) 814 734 669 630 625 404 189 255 336 281 301 230 222
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.7 16.0
LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.8 51.3 52.8 54.3 57.4 60.4 63.6 66.9 70.4 74.1 77.8 81.4
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 17 17 18 18 17 17
HEAT CONTENT 32 38 43 44 49 61 75 50 46 50 82 83 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 37. 42. 49. 56. 61. 66.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 37. 41. 47. 54. 59. 63.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY