* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 08/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 62 68 70 70 67 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 62 68 70 70 67 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 52 61 67 67 64 61 SHEAR (KTS) 13 9 9 10 6 8 3 9 17 24 22 24 19 SHEAR DIR 332 338 326 350 358 349 293 260 249 269 268 281 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 154 153 155 156 158 157 156 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 127 127 127 127 128 130 130 128 126 126 128 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 54 55 55 56 55 57 54 53 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 8 29 30 45 38 20 23 -23 -27 -53 -19 200 MB DIV 2 -3 7 7 16 1 11 8 22 -3 2 2 15 LAND (KM) 447 442 416 387 352 286 251 224 233 221 182 191 270 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.5 29.1 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.7 76.9 77.5 78.0 78.4 78.8 79.1 79.1 78.7 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 51 46 44 46 45 37 32 49 66 63 63 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 30. 38. 43. 46. 46. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 29. 37. 43. 45. 45. 42. 40. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY