* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* GIL EP102007 08/29/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 45 44 41 38 37 33 30 26
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 45 44 41 38 37 33 30 26
V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 43 43 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 27
SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 17 15 9 15 12 13 10 15 16 24 24
SHEAR DIR 66 79 95 104 89 80 83 105 139 155 167 171 184
SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.9 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 127 120 119 122 121 116 110 102 96
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 72 68 60 56 51 49 44 43 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 76 67 56 43 41 48 34 35 17 23 5 10 -10
200 MB DIV 29 29 14 -12 -18 -1 -1 -17 -25 -13 -10 -9 -20
LAND (KM) 366 359 382 438 515 629 786 973 1149 1305 1453 1618 1757
LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.1 114.2 116.3 118.3 120.3 122.3 124.4 126.4 128.6 130.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 4. -1. -4. -9.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. -2. -5. -9.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/29/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/29/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY