* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952007 08/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 56 69 78 83 84 86 88 87 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 56 69 78 83 84 86 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 48 51 55 58 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 17 16 11 11 9 16 14 12 8 8 6 SHEAR DIR 54 49 71 87 90 84 95 89 87 103 90 86 80 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 159 158 158 156 155 153 150 143 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 78 78 78 80 80 80 82 82 82 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 46 43 45 46 33 22 21 26 22 26 34 37 50 200 MB DIV 71 58 64 80 90 98 113 131 114 110 103 120 82 LAND (KM) 411 386 372 366 381 418 441 443 462 459 502 470 411 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 102.0 104.0 105.5 106.9 108.1 109.4 110.6 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 36. 46. 53. 55. 58. 60. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 20. 31. 44. 53. 58. 59. 61. 63. 62. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 57% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 08/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED