* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 51 58 63 67 74 77 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 51 58 63 67 74 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 46 54 63 73 82 87 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 14 10 5 11 4 11 6 9 9 14 11 SHEAR DIR 354 349 3 355 338 346 32 346 324 322 256 302 291 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 143 147 154 152 148 148 147 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 144 144 147 152 160 157 151 151 149 151 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 58 57 56 55 53 52 57 52 51 50 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 13 14 9 -5 -1 17 24 37 49 29 27 200 MB DIV 2 5 -9 -7 -5 -12 -20 -15 -23 -4 -1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 783 732 690 671 663 420 246 333 375 279 248 176 297 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.2 51.5 53.0 54.4 57.5 60.7 63.9 67.2 70.6 74.2 77.8 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 41 42 46 60 76 59 50 49 73 89 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 33. 38. 43. 50. 54. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 26. 33. 38. 42. 49. 53. 55. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY