* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 08/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 60 65 66 64 63 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 60 65 66 64 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 56 59 58 55 53 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 10 7 8 5 5 15 27 27 33 25 24 SHEAR DIR 327 337 3 2 340 11 278 257 258 267 266 262 249 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 150 151 155 153 152 147 144 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 126 125 123 125 129 128 126 123 123 122 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 53 59 57 56 60 53 56 52 49 44 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 8 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 30 32 34 39 22 22 5 -21 -43 -13 18 200 MB DIV -5 5 11 10 -25 19 -8 33 12 13 -4 4 8 LAND (KM) 466 444 424 406 387 373 387 411 349 343 477 682 930 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.3 29.2 30.4 31.4 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.1 76.2 76.3 76.4 76.6 76.7 76.4 75.9 74.7 72.5 69.7 66.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 1 3 5 6 6 7 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 45 48 53 51 45 62 47 41 26 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 39. 42. 40. 39. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 35. 40. 41. 39. 38. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY