* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 42 44 43 42 39 37 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 42 44 43 42 39 37 34 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 11 8 12 12 10 6 9 11 16 20 20 SHEAR DIR 70 99 100 91 73 83 98 111 135 165 163 180 188 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 130 127 123 129 129 124 118 110 105 100 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 73 70 68 58 55 49 44 43 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 54 51 50 52 52 33 29 19 9 0 -9 200 MB DIV 22 14 -3 0 -6 4 -12 -31 -19 -17 -26 -31 -3 LAND (KM) 401 435 492 572 632 769 962 1151 1327 1480 1633 1801 1941 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.4 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.7 119.7 121.7 123.8 125.9 128.0 130.2 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY