* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952007 08/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 77 81 87 90 92 91 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 77 81 87 90 92 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 51 56 61 65 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 15 8 11 13 13 14 12 6 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 40 60 75 79 56 91 64 88 98 128 80 138 341 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 160 160 159 158 156 152 145 138 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 8 11 8 10 7 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 80 78 80 77 81 79 83 79 78 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 36 25 13 11 19 34 25 38 55 73 76 200 MB DIV 58 60 80 81 86 84 114 90 90 75 87 61 42 LAND (KM) 413 379 346 332 333 346 332 343 349 418 490 450 532 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.5 98.4 99.4 100.3 102.2 103.9 105.4 106.9 108.5 110.4 112.2 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 26. 32. 35. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 14. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 35. 46. 52. 59. 63. 64. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 30. 42. 52. 56. 62. 65. 67. 66. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY